A blast from the past

[felixp21]

For years, I have had discussions with one of my bro's about a case of wine purchased by me, from savings gleaned working in a Toyota factory in Port Melbourne over the uni holidays, he continually disbelieved the price.
Well, thanks to www.newspapers.com I finally settled the argument!!!

Saturday, 15th April, 1978. Hawks are playing North Melbourne out at Waverley, my younger bro is in the final of the Head of the River, and I gotta rush down to Crittendens to get my long-awaited case of 1964 Grand Puy Lacoste as soon as the store opens, rush off to the footy, rush back after the footy and pick up a first date at 7.30pm for dinner, a bottle of the above in hand. Must have worked out well, we dated for about 4 years.

Thanks to the web site above, I looked up the Age Epicure of the preceding Tuesday, and sure enough, the advertisement from Crittendens is there, Chateau Grand Puy Lacoste 1964, $158/dozen
That is a 14 year old Classified Bordeaux from a great vintage for 13 bucks! wow, they were the days hehe. Mind you, I could have purchased the 1971 Grange in April 1978 for not too much more than that.

Searching the Epicures from around that era is a lot of fun.

Hmmm, Grange 1971 $13.95 or Pol Roger NV for $15.95??? Tough choice

Maybe Lindemans St George 1980 (Jimmy Watson) $13.95 or 1976 Grange $18.50 (from Epicure in 1983, but you did have to drive to Geelong to pick up the Grange, unless you ordered a dozen)

Also, confirmed in the early days Leeuwin Estate Chardonnay was more expensive than Grange
At release, you could have got the 1971 Bin 389 for $2.50 by the dozen. Might have been the greatest bargain of them all.

I guess the most amazing aspects of those days was:
1. the price of French Champagne, and I well remember that, seems to be absurd, for no particular reason. Even comparing apples to apples, you could purchase 1982 Pontet Canet, $13.00, 1982 Pichon Lalande, $16.00, cheaper than a bottle of Laurent Perrier NV ($17.00) at the time of release of 1982 Bordeaux.
2. so, so many companies , even very big ones, no longer exist. Chais Norman, Henke anyone? The dearth of boutique wineries, outside the Yarra Valley, is staggering. It seems about 6-7 big companies sold 80% of all Domestic wine.
3. You could buy Grange and Hill of Grace anywhere, even the local pubs. Both were cheap as chips, HoG about half the price of Grange. Mt Ed and HoG seemed to have been almost the same price.

now, where did I park my DeLorean??????

[mjs]

Felix,
A great story. Your post reminded me that I dug up some old price lists a few weeks ago. Nick's from '81, for both old world and domestic, so 36 years ago. Here are a couple of pages of the prices for classified growths from 1976

[img]https://s19.postimg.org/tdpsisfdv/bdx_1.jpg[/img] [img]https://s19.postimg.org/ortoag1kj/bdx_2.jpg[/img]

Grand Puy-Lacoste was up to $20

And some domestic pricing ....

[img]https://s19.postimg.org/9j3qwppwj/linde_1.jpg[/img]

[img]https://s19.postimg.org/mahx374tf/linde_2.jpg[/img]

[img]https://s19.postimg.org/o2avy3vw3/pennies.jpg[/img]

Love the Lindeman's collection, they don't make wines like that anymore. '76 St George $4.88, '76 Mildara Cabernet for $3.50 anyone? '75 Grange for $14.64 '77 Bin 707 for $8.95

Also found some vintage/data sheets on the Lindies Hunter pair from '65, Bin 3100 and 3110, as well as Rouge Homme 63 Cabernet, which i can post if anyone is busting to see them .... haha

Mind you, if you do a comparison between salary then and now in terms of buying power, it does put it more into perspective. Imagine doing this in another 36 years. Koonunga Hill for on special for $50 anyone?

Just shows that either I'm bloody old or keep too much crap (or both )

cheers, Malcolm

[Mahmoud Ali]

Thanks guys, it made for fun reading .............. Mahmoud.

[Bobthebuilder]

Clearly I was born a generation too late!

[BHCC1]

Great memories Felix. My wife bought me a 1966 Latour at Crittendens at around the same time - I recall it costing $30 odd dollars. We drunk the wine in May this year after carting it around with is for the past 40 years. What a wine; years ahead of it - wish she had bought two!

[felixp21]

many thanks Malcolm!!! Awesome read, sitting in a cafe sipping on a really decent Volnay

The one that caught my eye immediately, of course was the Lindemans 65 3110, it has only gone up in value by 100 fold since then
I still regularly kick myself for only buying two bottles of this from Vintage Cellars in Little Bourke Street about 1984, for the same price (they had a dozen there, but I couldn't be stuffed carrying them all, and when I went back a few days later they were all gone. )

The 67 Nyrang was an absolute treat, as was the 66. My older brother was working in Naughton's hotel in Carlton while studying at Melb Uni, and i picked up cases and cases of both years thru him for $3 a bottle!! Still drank amazingly well at 30 years of age.

Ahhh, 76 Bordeaux!!! The most over-priced mediocre Bordeaux vintage in history, for a variety of reasons, mainly on the back of a half-decent 1975 after a string of terrible years. The Bordelaise were just as greedy back then, hehe, and plenty of people were well and truly burnt buying that crap (including my old man hehe). If I recall correctly, 76 en primeur was more expensive than 82!!!

[felixp21]

many thanks Malcolm!!! Awesome read, sitting in a cafe sipping on a really decent Volnay

The one that caught my eye immediately, of course was the Lindemans 65 3110, it has only gone up in value by 100 fold since then
I still regularly kick myself for only buying two bottles of this from Vintage Cellars in Little Bourke Street about 1984, for the same price (they had a dozen there, but I couldn't be stuffed carrying them all, and when I went back a few days later they were all gone. )

The 67 Nyrang was an absolute treat, as was the 66. My older brother was working in Naughton's hotel in Carlton while studying at Melb Uni, and i picked up cases and cases of both years thru him for $3 a bottle!! Still drank amazingly well at 30 years of age.

Ahhh, 76 Bordeaux!!! The most over-priced mediocre Bordeaux vintage in history, for a variety of reasons, mainly on the back of a half-decent 1975 after a string of terrible years. The Bordelaise were just as greedy back then, hehe, and plenty of people were well and truly burnt buying that crap (including my old man hehe). If I recall correctly, 76 en primeur was more expensive than 82!!!

[michel]

Wouldnt the Hunter River 1966 Burgundy 3300 be the best release of the year?
33 equals the year 1966
00 equals the top release

Actually that doesn't sound right
Can someone remind me of the numbering system

[Mahmoud Ali]

Michel, you are in fact correct. The first two digit is a reference to the year while the last two digits to the regular or "reserve" bottling. The 00 is the superior release. Am I correct in asserting that these are nop longer made?

A number of years ago I was pleasantly surprised to find the 1995 and 1996 Lindeman's Hunter Shiraz (9003 and 9203) in a local store. We were thrilled to find a reasonable priced and ready to drink Hunter shiraz here in Canada. In the interest of experimentation we kept a bottle of each to see how far they would travel. The difficult question is deciding which one to open first.

The 67 Nyrang was an absolute treat, as was the 66. My older brother was working in Naughton's hotel in Carlton while studying at Melb Uni, and i picked up cases and cases of both years thru him for $3 a bottle!! Still drank amazingly well at 30 years of age.

Continuing on the topic of Lindeman's wines, this is another example of a wine that appeared out of the blue here in Canada. I did not recall ever seeing this wine before I spotted a bottle of the 1996 Lindeman's Nyrang Bin 9051 on a store shelf. Never saw or heard of this wine since, even on my visits to Australia. I assume that this wine is also a victim of the slow demise of the Lindeman's brand. Hmm, the 67 was drinking well after 30 years. I suppose the '96 needs another decade.

Mahmoud.

[mjs]

many thanks Malcolm!!! Awesome read, sitting in a cafe sipping on a really decent Volnay

The one that caught my eye immediately, of course was the Lindemans 65 3110, it has only gone up in value by 100 fold since then
I still regularly kick myself for only buying two bottles of this from Vintage Cellars in Little Bourke Street about 1984, for the same price (they had a dozen there, but I couldn't be stuffed carrying them all, and when I went back a few days later they were all gone. )

Felix,
Yes, the price of the 3110 (and 3100) brings tears to my eyes, both then and now. I was probably lucky enough to drink a few of each through the 80's when they were on the "Classic Release" list and still reasonably priced, well before they went through the stratosphere to sell for drug money.
cheers, Malcolm

[michel]

Michel, you are in fact correct. The first two digit is a reference to the year while the last two digits to the regular or "reserve" bottling. The 00 is the superior release. Am I correct in asserting that these are nop longer made?

A number of years ago I was pleasantly surprised to find the 1995 and 1996 Lindeman's Hunter Shiraz (9003 and 9203) in a local store. We were thrilled to find a reasonable priced and ready to drink Hunter shiraz here in Canada. In the interest of experimentation we kept a bottle of each to see how far they would travel. The difficult question is deciding which one to open first.

The 67 Nyrang was an absolute treat, as was the 66. My older brother was working in Naughton's hotel in Carlton while studying at Melb Uni, and i picked up cases and cases of both years thru him for $3 a bottle!! Still drank amazingly well at 30 years of age.

Continuing on the topic of Lindeman's wines, this is another example of a wine that appeared out of the blue here in Canada. I did not recall ever seeing this wine before I spotted a bottle of the 1996 Lindeman's Nyrang Bin 9051 on a store shelf. Never saw or heard of this wine since, even on my visits to Australia. I assume that this wine is also a victim of the slow demise of the Lindeman's brand. Hmm, the 67 was drinking well after 30 years. I suppose the '96 needs another decade.

Mahmoud.

I fondly recall 65 67 as a kid my dad tried and they were my first sip of wine in the late 1970s
I am deeply saddened to see the loss of the Show Reserve Series and the great fortifieds ....

[Mahmoud Ali]

Ahhh, 76 Bordeaux!!! The most over-priced mediocre Bordeaux vintage in history, for a variety of reasons, mainly on the back of a half-decent 1975 after a string of terrible years. The Bordelaise were just as greedy back then, hehe, and plenty of people were well and truly burnt buying that crap (including my old man hehe). If I recall correctly, 76 en primeur was more expensive than 82!!!

As overpriced as the '76s were back then, over time they did increase in value. They certainly were pricy when I entered the fine wine market. Never could afford either the '75 or '76 vintage of Bordeaux. Would love to have some of those wines at those prices.

While the '76s came in for considerable criticism, I suspect that they, like other weak vintages, did turn into some very enjoyable medium-bodied claret, old wines to drink and contemplate, not to compete and score. Not that long ago, when the wine was already 30 years old, I came across a single bottle of 1976 Leoville Poyferre. It was in a small, rundown wine store in a low rent area of town, sitting all alone in a metal rack slot without a price tag. There was also a couple of 1978 Bordeaux in another slot, again without a price tag. I have no idea how these solitary bottles of wine came to be in this store and I half suspected that some poor fellow's house had been burgled and the wine sold on to this store. In any case I took it to the counter to ask about the price and was told it was $45, as were the other two Bordeaux. For a 30 year-old wine it was a good price but not knowing the provenance of the wine and the poor reputation of the '76 vintage I hesitated. It was then that the fellow at the till said he could give me a deal if I bought all three bottles. I felt heartened and asked him how much. After a few moments checking his computerized till he pronunced: "You can have them for $15 each". I tell you my heart skipped a beat and I could not get out of the store fast enough with my booty.

Not long afterwards I opened the '76 Poyferre with some friends over dinner and it was lovely, obviously worth the $15 and much, much more. Prior to opening the bottle I noted that the Parker guide on Bordeaux had rated the '76 Poyferre a lowly 75 points, stating that the wine was "Very soft, flabby, almost soupy, fruity flavors show good ripeness, but little structure, grip, or balance. A sweet, simple, fruity wine that can be quaffed easily, but it does not deliver "classified growth'' breed or character." When he tasted it in 1983 he thought it needed to be drunk and that the wine was in serious decline. He was wrong, very wrong. I know that Parker has a very good palate but predicting the future trajectory of wine is an educated guess and though we all have our own opinions, expert and amateur alike, it is, in the end, a guess. In a thread on this forum someone said the Bordelais made "crap wine" before Parker came along. I wopuld argue that they did indeed make good wine, even in the so-called poor vintages. Though each vintage is different, so much depends on how well the winemaker deals with the fruit he/she has. Even wines from the dreaded 1977 vintage are providing pleasure. If indeed Parker was a "saviour" to Bordeaux it likely was on the finanacial side.

Cheers ..................... Mahmoud.

[phillisc]

This is fantastic, indeed a blast from the past Felix
My love of all things Melbourne...The Age, Carlton and of course Crittendens, Randall's, Farmer Brothers, King and Godfrey...
In the early 80s when just getting into wine, I religiously read the Age every Tuesday, the number of independents who advertised far exceeded anything in Adelaide as indeed did their great prices.
Before the advent of the internet and mobiles, one did quaint things and rang long distance to arrange delivery...even after freight South Australian reds were still much cheaper to buy from Victoria!!??
The memory is getting fuzzy now, but in the very early 90s...to much fanfare Crittenden's on Toorak Rd did a multi-million dollar upgrade and not long after had the fire sale of all fire sales.
A full page (circa 1991ish or therabouts) ad when The Age was still a broadsheet and hundreds and hundreds of wines were listed.
Four of us drove over...came home with cases of 87 John Riddoch, 87 Bin 707, multiple vintages of Magill Estate, 3 cases of 86 Bin 28, 80, 86 and 87 St George, 78 Rouge Homme Cabernet ( still one of the best wines I have ever drunk), 80 Rouge Homme Claret and a stash of Lindies fortifieds, 1625 Muscat WH 2 Tokay.

I still remember the scores of people, the full page ad on a pin board and shop employees crossing through wines that rapidly sold out.
Amazing times!
Cheers
Craig

[GraemeG]

Well, the 5 Bdx first growths were 3-4 times the Grange price, whereas now they're only twice!
Some of the other relativities are remarkable consistent all these years later.

I once shared a '67 Yquem bought on release in Oz which still had it's original $17 price tag attached.
cheers,
Graeme

[Bobthebuilder]

Well, the 5 Bdx first growths were 3-4 times the Grange price, whereas now they're only twice!
Some of the other relativities are remarkable consistent all these years later.

I once shared a '67 Yquem bought on release in Oz which still had it's original $17 price tag attached.
cheers,
Graeme

and the grange is only around 5 times the price of the bin 28
that would put grange at around $150 today on the same scale!

[mjs]

I hope that doesn't mean that Bin 28 is underpriced haha

[conformistpete]

Puts the Bin 28 at around $140. Luckily no one from TWE frequents here anymore.

[Mahmoud Ali]

All those wines were underpriced don't you know.

[felixp21]

IN 1978, there are ads for the 1972 Grange @ $8.50 if purchased by the dozen.

So, I went into Google, to look at the NPV for $8.50 in 1978.
I expected it to be around $200.

To my amazement, the NPV of $8.50 in 1978 is $33.05

So I went back to Google and used a different calculation formula

The result was entirely different.

The NPV of $8.50 in 1978 was %33.07

incredible.

BTW Graeme, I purchased 2014 Mouton en primeur in HK for $325 a bottle, which was less than half the price of the 2009 Grange, available in HK at that time.
The 2015 FG's were about the same price as Grange in HK. (excluding Latour)

[sjw_11]

Felix, I don't quite understand your post... an NPV is the current value of a future cash flow or stream of cash flows discounted at a given rate. So it doesn't make sense to talk about the NPV today of $8.50 in 1978. I think you mean what is the value today of $8.50 in 1978 (or in other words the FV of a historic fixed PV)... which all depends on what rate of return you assume on that (historical) present value. After all, $8.50 in 1970s coinage would still be worth (at best) $8.50 today.

If you use the annual Australian all-goods CPI each year starting at $8.50 as of the end of 1978, then the value today (inflation adjusted only) would be $42.

Another way we could look at it is to compare the current Dan Murphy Grange price of $722 with that equivalent 1978 price of $8.50. Assuming a purchase on 31 December 1978 at $8.50 versus one at $722 today, the cumulative average annual growth rate of the price is around 12.1%.

Now, the products are not identical and wine is a perishable commodity but for the sake of amusement I had a look to see how that return compares to other places you could have put your money...

• Inflation over that same period in Australia averaged 4.2% per annum;
• US Equities delivered a total return of 11.8% per annum from 1978 to today (using S&P500 as the proxy, per Bloomberg TRA, dividends reinvested in the index);
• Over 30-yrs from 1986, Australian shares delivered a total return of 9.1% per annum and Global shares delivered 7% (in AUD terms, currency unhedged- using ASX 200 and MSCI World as the proxies, with dividends reinvested, per Fidelity data);
• According to the RBA over the past 30 years average Australian house prices overall increased around 7.25% per annum (Long-run Trends in Housing Price Growth, Kohler and van der Merwe, 2015);
• What about the key cities specifically? Well, we can compare the 1978 median house prices with today. Doing so suggests a cumulative average annual growth rate of 9% in Sydney, 8% in Melbourne and Brisbane and 7% in Perth between 1978 and 2016. (using historical median house prices from Housing Prices in Australia: 1970 to 2003, Abelson and Chung, Macquarie University);
• But, if you buy a house- you can also live in it or rent it out. So there is an additional saving or return on top of the price growth. How should we guess that? Some research suggests since 2004 rent yields in Sydney have been in the range of 3.5-4.5% (Waltl, 2016, Uni Graz). However, I would need to know the 1978 yield and/or the CAGR in Sydney rents to get the longer-term average. That doesn't seem to be available. But lets assume this adds at least ~4% long-term giving you a 13%+ total return on your Sydney resi investment- just beating the Grange!

What does it all mean??
What becomes clear is that your 1978 self should have bought either a house in Sydney or a bottle of Grange. Considering the house is (hopefully) much less perishable than the Grange, you probably should have bought the house.

Which makes obvious another conclusion you may have noticed anecdotally: only those who bought a house in Sydney in 40 years ago, can still afford to buy Grange!! (not much help to me as I wasn't born until 1985)


(NB: I am assuming that you had $43K in 1978 and had to decide whether to buy a median Sydney house or 5,082 bottles of Grange! I am aware mortgage rates in 1978 were ~10% and trying to factor that in would make this all very messy)

[Mahmoud Ali]

What does it all mean??
What becomes clear is that your 1978 self should have bought either a house in Sydney or a bottle of Grange. Considering the house is (hopefully) much less perishable than the Grange, you probably should have bought the house.

Which makes obvious another conclusion you may have noticed anecdotally: only those who bought a house in Sydney in 40 years ago, can still afford to buy Grange!! (not much help to me as I wasn't born until 1985)

(NB: I am assuming that you had $43K in 1978 and had to decide whether to buy a median Sydney house or 5,082 bottles of Grange! I am aware mortgage rates in 1978 were ~10% and trying to factor that in would make this all very messy)

What it all means is that one should buy low and sell high, aka the effects of supply and demand, all you ever need to know about economics. Father Guido Sarducci said it all in the 80s:

https://youtu.be/kO8x8eoU3L4

Cheers ............... Mahmoud.

[mjs]

What it certainly means, like death and taxes, is that it is inevitable that wine prices will rise in dollar terms as long as we live in this growth oriented society that always says that bigger and more is always better. Whether it is more pronounced at the Grange end or the Koonunga Hill end is interesting to debate but it doesn't really matter.

[felixp21]

thanks SJW, google seems to recognise NPV, but I think we get the drift!!

yes, interest rates... hmm, hit 23% in the later 80's.... ouch!!!! I remember that too well!!!!!

[mjs]

I think I was paying $0.01 off the principal of the mortgage every month then

[felixp21]

Malcolm, I particularly enjoyed reading that offer from Nick's...... seems Nick unilaterally decided that Pomerol had undergone some sort of Cru classification in the mid-70's
Even more amusing is that Nenin somehow became a second growth!!!!!