Hi Everyone
New to this forum so look forward to contributing.
Having a discussion over dinner about Grange over the weekend (sadly while not drinking it, did have a cracking "01 Cape Mentelle Cab though!).
Seeing the price of Grange rise increasingly over time & growing demand from Asia will its prices ever drop?
A friend has some older Grange bottles from the 70's from lower quality vintages (eg; "74).
Surely they will not be drinking well by now - yet auction sale prices for them remain high.
So is there a point where certain Grange bottles are valued as "status objects only" as their contents are no longer drinking well?
Or will prices have to eventually drop when people realize certain vintages are now past the point of no return.
Penfolds Grange - Will Prices Ever Drop?
-
occassionalwinesnob
- Posts: 4
- Joined: Sat Nov 08, 2014 10:43 am
Re: Penfolds Grange - Will Prices Ever Drop?
Welcome to the forums!
As we know, Grange gets better with time, and even 'poor' vintages like 1974 can definitely still be good drinking now! Haven't tried the 74, but I've very much enjoyed a 72 and 75 over the past year or so (not to mention the stellar 71). There will always be the star vintages like 66, 71, 76 etc that get the highest prices at auction, but it's a consistent wine overall, so most vintages command a fairly high price, although mostly still well below the current price. Other than the variability of corks, storage is the real key to how it shows. Has your friend thought about taking one or two along to the Penfolds Clinics to see how they're travelling? I certainly would be, what a great day out.
I think it's safe to say that it's prices on release won't drop, they may level out, but for me, the best place to buy Grange is not on release, but on the secondary market where you get the benefit of age (albeit with some element of risk if it hasn't been stored correctly). The thought of buying a $600+ wine now that really isn't worth drinking for 30+ years is a struggle for me (even if I could afford it!). 5-15 years is more my cellaring target for the new wines I buy, but if I had room for thousands of bottles, maybe this would change a little.
Yes some bottles are sold as mostly status objects, not generally likely to be drinking well (but still very possible if stored well), the very earliest vintages (51-60) with the notable exception of the 1955, come to mind. But the rarity of these bottles keeps the prices enormous. Certain vintages are already going for so-called 'bargain' prices as they are considered a lesser year, 74 included, along with the likes of 72, 79 and 93 amongst others. No doubt this trend will continue, but as I mentioned if 72 was a lesser year, then I'd not hesitate buying some other lesser years!
Cheers
TiggerK
As we know, Grange gets better with time, and even 'poor' vintages like 1974 can definitely still be good drinking now! Haven't tried the 74, but I've very much enjoyed a 72 and 75 over the past year or so (not to mention the stellar 71). There will always be the star vintages like 66, 71, 76 etc that get the highest prices at auction, but it's a consistent wine overall, so most vintages command a fairly high price, although mostly still well below the current price. Other than the variability of corks, storage is the real key to how it shows. Has your friend thought about taking one or two along to the Penfolds Clinics to see how they're travelling? I certainly would be, what a great day out.
I think it's safe to say that it's prices on release won't drop, they may level out, but for me, the best place to buy Grange is not on release, but on the secondary market where you get the benefit of age (albeit with some element of risk if it hasn't been stored correctly). The thought of buying a $600+ wine now that really isn't worth drinking for 30+ years is a struggle for me (even if I could afford it!). 5-15 years is more my cellaring target for the new wines I buy, but if I had room for thousands of bottles, maybe this would change a little.
Yes some bottles are sold as mostly status objects, not generally likely to be drinking well (but still very possible if stored well), the very earliest vintages (51-60) with the notable exception of the 1955, come to mind. But the rarity of these bottles keeps the prices enormous. Certain vintages are already going for so-called 'bargain' prices as they are considered a lesser year, 74 included, along with the likes of 72, 79 and 93 amongst others. No doubt this trend will continue, but as I mentioned if 72 was a lesser year, then I'd not hesitate buying some other lesser years!
Cheers
TiggerK
-
Waiters Friend
- Posts: 2786
- Joined: Mon May 02, 2005 4:09 am
- Location: Perth WA
Re: Penfolds Grange - Will Prices Ever Drop?
I think the question of 'will prices ever drop?" needs to be qualified by "in relation to what?"
Given that Grange can be a 50 year wine, there would be only a few vintages (if any) where 100% of bottles are totally past it.
Price - in relation to the original purchase price? Definitely not. A few friends and I shared a 1984 recently which (if it is the same bottle) I bought in the early 90s for around $75 retail. Auction price now is around $300. But in comparison to the retail price of the current vintage ($650+), the 1984 starts to look like a bargain.
Given that Grange can be a 50 year wine, there would be only a few vintages (if any) where 100% of bottles are totally past it.
Price - in relation to the original purchase price? Definitely not. A few friends and I shared a 1984 recently which (if it is the same bottle) I bought in the early 90s for around $75 retail. Auction price now is around $300. But in comparison to the retail price of the current vintage ($650+), the 1984 starts to look like a bargain.
Wine, women and song. Ideally, you can experience all three at once.
-
occassionalwinesnob
- Posts: 4
- Joined: Sat Nov 08, 2014 10:43 am
Re: Penfolds Grange - Will Prices Ever Drop?
Yes very interesting feedback from TiggerK & Waiters Friend thanks.
My friend and I went to a Penfolds Clinic at the Intercontinental Sydney a few years back - quite the experience!
I think that the further a Grange moves away from its vintage year it becomes more valued (and pricier).
Both as a rare object for some & a rare wine to consume for others. I am a supporter of the latter!
My friend and I went to a Penfolds Clinic at the Intercontinental Sydney a few years back - quite the experience!
I think that the further a Grange moves away from its vintage year it becomes more valued (and pricier).
Both as a rare object for some & a rare wine to consume for others. I am a supporter of the latter!
Re: Penfolds Grange - Will Prices Ever Drop?
Even if the demand for Grange was to slide, I think the price of Grange would stabilise, but very unlikely to drop below $500 (as an arbitrary price floor).
Grange is a useful tool for TWE as it acts as a price anchor, making the rest of the other wines (707, RWT, St Henri, 389, 407, Yattarna) appear to be "reasonably priced" - in the same way that Hill of Grace makes Mt Edelstone, Cyril Henschke, Euphonium etc look "ok".
TWE also needs the price of Grange to remain very high for prestige purposes - they are selling the idea that Grange is world class, and thus should be priced in a way similar to wines like the Bordeaux 1st growths. "Sensible" pricing would probably do more damage than good for the Grange image.
The profit margin for Grange is so high anyway that if sales drop they could just hold stock back like the Cru Classe Bordelais chateaux do...it would cost them bugger all to do so.
P.S. I wonder if Grange will hit $1000 in the next 5-10 years? I think there's a good chance!
Grange is a useful tool for TWE as it acts as a price anchor, making the rest of the other wines (707, RWT, St Henri, 389, 407, Yattarna) appear to be "reasonably priced" - in the same way that Hill of Grace makes Mt Edelstone, Cyril Henschke, Euphonium etc look "ok".
TWE also needs the price of Grange to remain very high for prestige purposes - they are selling the idea that Grange is world class, and thus should be priced in a way similar to wines like the Bordeaux 1st growths. "Sensible" pricing would probably do more damage than good for the Grange image.
The profit margin for Grange is so high anyway that if sales drop they could just hold stock back like the Cru Classe Bordelais chateaux do...it would cost them bugger all to do so.
P.S. I wonder if Grange will hit $1000 in the next 5-10 years? I think there's a good chance!
-
Mike Hawkins
- Posts: 2747
- Joined: Fri Aug 29, 2003 9:39 am
Re: Penfolds Grange - Will Prices Ever Drop?
I'm looking fwd to the marketing spin on the 2011 Grange. It may be a tough sell....
-
Waiters Friend
- Posts: 2786
- Joined: Mon May 02, 2005 4:09 am
- Location: Perth WA
Re: Penfolds Grange - Will Prices Ever Drop?
Mike Hawkins wrote:I'm looking fwd to the marketing spin on the 2011 Grange. It may be a tough sell....
Perhaps THEN we will see a price drop!
Wine, women and song. Ideally, you can experience all three at once.
Re: Penfolds Grange - Will Prices Ever Drop?
Waiters Friend wrote:Mike Hawkins wrote:I'm looking fwd to the marketing spin on the 2011 Grange. It may be a tough sell....
Perhaps THEN we will see a price drop!
Like the legendary 2000 vintage then?
“There are no standards of taste in wine. Each mans own taste is the standard, and a majority vote cannot decide for him or in any slightest degree affect the supremacy of his own standard". Mark Twain.
Re: Penfolds Grange - Will Prices Ever Drop?
Jay60A wrote:Waiters Friend wrote:Mike Hawkins wrote:I'm looking fwd to the marketing spin on the 2011 Grange. It may be a tough sell....
Perhaps THEN we will see a price drop!
Like the legendary 2000 vintage then?
My guess is they won't make a great deal of the 2011 Grange (it will have been tough to find a great deal of decent quality fruit). With that in mind, I shall make the early call that 2011 will be "the rare Grange"...
Simon
Re: Penfolds Grange - Will Prices Ever Drop?
Simon, could not agree with you more.
Or more to the point I can see it now,
"Dear Joe Public, you have been the journey with us, even through the horror times of 89, 92, 95, 99, 00...you would not want to miss out on keeping the lineage intact....what would your grandchildren think if there was a missing piece!!"
But wait... a white knight has burst through the door...another 98+ rating from a critic on the payroll
Perhaps Pennies could do a bundle deal, if you buy a couple of 2010s or 2012s for that matter, you can have an '11 on us.
Take that one to the marketing department Mr Clarke...what a shot in the arm for your maligned domestic market.
Cheers
Craig.
Or more to the point I can see it now,
"Dear Joe Public, you have been the journey with us, even through the horror times of 89, 92, 95, 99, 00...you would not want to miss out on keeping the lineage intact....what would your grandchildren think if there was a missing piece!!"
But wait... a white knight has burst through the door...another 98+ rating from a critic on the payroll
Perhaps Pennies could do a bundle deal, if you buy a couple of 2010s or 2012s for that matter, you can have an '11 on us.
Take that one to the marketing department Mr Clarke...what a shot in the arm for your maligned domestic market.
Cheers
Craig.
Tomorrow will be a good day