Interesting thread.
Mahmoud Ali wrote:https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=lmVbjjNv-fc
What has this to do with screw caps you ask? Wait til the 11 minute mark. And keep in mind, Jancis Robinson made this in the 90s
It's not that hard to believe though, with the Stelvin screwcap having been introduced into the Australian wine industry in the 70's, and numeroues wineries were embracing it around 1980.
Unfortunately, the public didn't receive them positively and there was a move back to cork in the 80's by those same wineries. IIRC, it wasn't until the concerted effort by Jeffrey Grosset et al in the early 2000's that the closure became more accepted in the Australian market. I think a lot of the success in the 2000's had to do with the education of wine buyers about closures.
I do agree that the low oxygen transmission rates (OTR) of Stelvin may be a concern for the long term development of some wines. The OTR of Stelvin matches the OTR of the "best" natural corks, but the "best" natural corks have OTR lower than the average natural cork, so most wines under natural cork would age "faster". My experience tends to confirm this, and I am worried that I'm going to have to wait a lot longer for many wines under Stelvin to mature to the same point as I'm used to for natural cork-closed wine.
I am quite surprised that Stelvins with variable OTR haven't taken off yet. That could alleviate the problem, with Stelvin's of higher OTR allowing wines to mature faster. Closures with variable OTR are already well established with technical corks. For example, DIAM offer several corks with different OTR.
(On a separate note on DIAM, in the last two years I've opened over 100 DIAM-sealed wines and I haven't experienced one that's been tainted by TCA. Bear in mind, that's a TCA-affected rate of 0%, compared to the typical rates of between 5% and 20% in non-technical corks. There are some concerns over how the binders used in technical corks might impact wines over the longer term, but I'm not convinced of this being an issue. I guess time will tell.)
I would add that there's one influence a cork closure has on wine that screwcaps don't (that has nothing to do with OTR or TCA and) that I think is often overlooked: flavour impact. Many corks do give a slightly woody note to wines, and in some cases (particularly reds with oak influence) that can be an attractive feature (that I think a lot of people aren't even aware of). It's never a huge impact (with a decent cork and a flavourfull enough wine), but sometimes is can have enough influence to make a difference to (at least) the aroma of a wine.
I think there's a place for both closures (at the moment at least), and I'm sure time will show which kind of OTR winemakers and consumers prefer for which kinds of wine. The closures will adjust accordingly.