.......... I've not seen the old Siegersdorf at the local since Hedley took over the outlet - but that's Constellation/Hardy. The Nottage Hill, another well-known label from Hardcons will definitely not be near the class of the Seppelt Drumborg 03 that made such sweet music for me last night - and Halliday rates the 04 slightly better? Grosset? What Grosset - especially at the price? (Though must admit to having tried only the Watervale 01 - don't like petroleum in riesling). Enjoyed Petaluma Riesling 03 recently too but Southmount seems to have the Victorian division staffed with some pretty good winemakers at present, as well as some fortuitous global warming allowing some of their SW Vic vineyards to produce great quality cool-climate fruit. Seems to me though that prices will soon be approaching the ask of some of now substandard, poor value Penfolds wines. Southmount are ramping up the quality of their Victorian wines, reducing the quantity produced, particularly St Peters. Watch'em move Chalambar to Bin 389 pricing and St Peters to Wynns Michael/John Riddoch over the next 3-5 years. Hardcons will do the same, as will the all the small good quality producers as their margins are squeezed. There may be a global wine lake at the moment with lots of little fish but even the best of the small fish are likely to be eaten up by the bigger predators but that's just market economics - what if Georgia or Emily don't want to make wine from their paddocks?
Big wine companies (especially public-listed ones) walk a real tightrope here. On the one hand, as commercial entities, they are expected to be as consistent and reliable as any other FMCG company - Kellogs, Streets, Westons. Yet, wine is not so much like these products - particularly as the quality level ascends above 'swill' You can't just double production because of sales demand. I think long term there will be an even bigger split in wine quality determined by price. Cheaper wines will become ever more consistent (and less interesting from the geek perspective) while the upper echelons of quality will become more distinguished from their corporate little brothers - even to the extent of brand naming.
Some companies have moved this way already - you rarely see the name 'Orlando' on cheap bottled wine (not in large print anyway) - the emphasis is all on 'Jacob's Creek', 'Wyndham Estate' and so on. 'Orlando' is reserved for the St H wines, Lawsons, Jacaranda, etc.
The Mildara name seems to be for cheap wines as well, while Jamiesons Run fills the $15-40 bracket. Some brands still do things the old way - with a wine at every price point - Rosemount, Penfolds and Wolf Blass leap to mind - but I wouldn't be surprised to see those ranges condense - at least at retail level (There is obviously quite a market for using cachet names - Seppelt a great example - to supply restaurants, functions, etc with a wine unavailable elsewhere).
The thing is, a conglomerate has to have enough 'industrial wine' income and cash flow if it wants to go playing with fine wine on the side. And if 'fine wine' starts to eat up too much capital without producing analyst-approved financial returns, woe betide a listed company. It's hard to imagine the big listed companies making a bid for Yarra Yering, for instance - they've got everything lose and bugger all to gain in doing so. But cash-successful private businesses (de Bortoli, Cassella, McGuigans) could buy it IF they wanted to dabble in 'fine wine.' But they'd have to do it because they wanted the cachet of owning such a winery - and be prepared to take returns that an analyst might shudder at.
I think in future we'll see respected small wineries going down both paths. Some will be bought by successful large (or small) wine companies and be run as well as, or better than, before. Historical examples might include Lakes Folly, Devils Lair, (Chateau Margaux? - there're lots more examples from Bordeaux than Australia)).
More likely is that labels will become mere shadows of their historical selves - Krondorf, Virgin Hills, Ingoldby, Rothbury, Tulloch (actually, lots of old Hunter names) leap to mind. What becomes of the Yeringbergs, Mount Mary's and Bass Phillips in the future is anyone's guess. Hope for benign conglomerates that can take them on for the challenge and weather any potential financial storms I guess...
My hope with the superboutiques like YY is that they're bought by someone who wants to make special wine, rather than turn a quick buck. If that's the motivation, I don't mind at all if they're bought by someone like Casella, as long as the motivation is right. It's probably fair enough to fear the consequences if they're bought by a big public company, as the range is dumbed down to please the accountants.
