Wine Predictions

[michel]

I have made many
And never been correct
I predicted in the 1990s Verdelho would be as popular as Chardonnay whilst sipping a Lindeman’s crackingly good one
Alas it never happened
But I highly recommend the Robert Channon one with 3 years of age.
I am trying a Trousseau- it will never catch on me thinks!

Anyone made any wine predictions & how did you go

[Ian S]

Internet 'darling' wines (esp. on US forums) to escalate rapidly in price e.g. Lopez de Heredia Rioja, Produttori del Barbaresco etc.

Still early days on that one, but I'd say just moderately accurate so far

[Lincoln]

I predicted that Kahuna Wines "Late Picked" Shiraz from the Rutherglen would be the next 'Three Rivers'..... alas I had been duped by an internet troll....

[phillisc]

That Halliday would continue to mock the price of Wendouree...thank you Tony and Lita Brady for keeping the faith
That Riesling would be the bargain of the century, was in the last one and 19 years into this one still continues to be.
That Pennies would systematically alienate the Australian market...10/10 to them
That Wynns John Riddoch would still be my favourite wine...yes, although in the later Douglas and early Hodder years where 14+% alcohols and green fruit and sloppy oak treatment were to the fore...but last half dozen releases have been a return to form

That Henschke would remain out of touch

Think I am 5 from 5

Cheers
Craig

[felixp21]

in this forum five years ago somewhere, that the prices of Burgundy will become stupid.
in this forum two years ago, the prices of Burgundy will become even more stupid.
guess what?
here is another modern prediction.... in the next five years, the prices of Burgundy will become even more stupid, ok, let's now call them totally ridiculous.
2017 EP's are out in HK, remembering this is a good-very good (not amazing) vintage with an abundant harvest.
Even in the World's cheapest wine city, the prices have become absurd because they know that, for the cult wines, they can basically charge whatever they want.

1996 Rousseau Chambertin was $170 in Australia upon release.
2017 Rousseau Chambertin will be closer to $5 or $6 thousand. Who knows? It is not even advertised by the two importers in HK, it is all on pre-allocation, but the 2017 was $4.5k on allocation in HK. So expect 5 or 6k in Australia.
2016 DRC, RC at $22k a bottle

Come on, honestly, is a bottle of wine worth that? 750mls of grape juice. A World gone mad.

[Rossco]

A long time ago I remember drinking Turkey Flat and Charlie Melton ROV and wondered why
more people are not losing their minds and buying more Rose`. Now the fastest growing segment in Aust.

[Aaron]

At some stage in the next few years, time will be called on some of the undrinkable, faulty, expensive swill that passes for "natural" wine in trendy wine bars and restaurants at the moment.
Having it served by someone with more tattoos than a Hell's Angels member who refers to you as dude doesn't make it any more right!!

[michel]

in this forum five years ago somewhere, that the prices of Burgundy will become stupid.
in this forum two years ago, the prices of Burgundy will become even more stupid.
guess what?
here is another modern prediction.... in the next five years, the prices of Burgundy will become even more stupid, ok, let's now call them totally ridiculous.
2017 EP's are out in HK, remembering this is a good-very good (not amazing) vintage with an abundant harvest.
Even in the World's cheapest wine city, the prices have become absurd because they know that, for the cult wines, they can basically charge whatever they want.

1996 Rousseau Chambertin was $170 in Australia upon release.
2017 Rousseau Chambertin will be closer to $5 or $6 thousand. Who knows? It is not even advertised by the two importers in HK, it is all on pre-allocation, but the 2017 was $4.5k on allocation in HK. So expect 5 or 6k in Australia.
2016 DRC, RC at $22k a bottle

Come on, honestly, is a bottle of wine worth that? 750mls of grape juice. A World gone mad.

1999 was $180
Bargain

[michel]

At some stage in the next few years, time will be called on some of the undrinkable, faulty, expensive swill that passes for "natural" wine in trendy wine bars and restaurants at the moment.
Having it served by someone with more tattoos than a Hell's Angels member who refers to you as dude doesn't make it any more right!!

Good call
We call them Hipster wines
Some are quirky fun
Others are downright faulty

[Chuck]

At some stage in the next few years, time will be called on some of the undrinkable, faulty, expensive swill that passes for "natural" wine in trendy wine bars and restaurants at the moment.
Having it served by someone with more tattoos than a Hell's Angels member who refers to you as dude doesn't make it any more right!!

Good call
We call them Hipster wines
Some are quirky fun
Others are downright faulty

+1 but I'm no hipster (thank your god). Just a grumpy older man.

Carl

[mychurch]

It’s once ordered 4 cases of upmarket Greek whites as I knew that would be the next big thing. Lovely wines, but I needn’t have worried as they did not sell out quickly nor explode in price. Guru was 1 and it was either the 07 or 08. Final bottle consumed last year and it had plenty of life in it.

[Polymer]

At some stage in the next few years, time will be called on some of the undrinkable, faulty, expensive swill that passes for "natural" wine in trendy wine bars and restaurants at the moment.
Having it served by someone with more tattoos than a Hell's Angels member who refers to you as dude doesn't make it any more right!!

So many natural wines you wouldn't know are natural wines...

Yes, some can get away from them...they get a bit natty or mousey...but there are a lot of producers that are natural that you'd just never know...you just think of them as good wines..

[felixp21]

As there is no definition of the term "natural wine" it is difficult to have a generalised opinion or discussion of them.
Many wine-makers claim their wine is "natural" yet add preservatives. This is especially true in Burgundy, where the so-called natural Domaines almost all add sulphur at one point or another in the wine-making process.
It is extraordinarily difficult to make true "natural" wines in marginal climate regions (read "cool climate") due to the increased incidence of disease/mildew etc. In addition, the exporting of true "natural" wines is incredibly problematic, something certainly not lost on the French wine makers.
It is extremely rare for me to like a true "natural" wine, I cannot recall one I have liked, but that is a personal preference and not a statement that true "natural" wines are poor.
Recent market research shows there is a sharp decline in the sales of natural wines in the US, but i haven't seen any figures for Australia.

[Ozzie W]

The Mt Etna region will eventually head the way of Barolo/Barbaresco and Burgundy. Prices will rise substantially and it'll be hard to just get an allocation of the top producers.

Why do I predict this? I actually see a lot of similarities between these regions:

• Nebbiolo and Pinot Noir share a lot of the same characteristics as Nerello Mascalese. They're all light in colour and body, but big on tannins, aromatics and complex flavours.
• They are all ageable wines. Modern wines from Etna haven't even been around long enough to work out the true aging potential.
• Vineyards are grouped into communes (Contrada), each with their own distinct characteristics.

As prices rise even further for Barolo/Barbaresco and Burgundy, people will look elsewhere for something similar.

One other related prediction. Mt Etna will be promoted from DOC to DOCG status. You heard it first here at Auswine!

[Con J]

The Mt Etna region will eventually head the way of Barolo/Barbaresco and Burgundy. Prices will rise substantially and it'll be hard to just get an allocation of the top producers.

Why do I predict this? I actually see a lot of similarities between these regions:

• Nebbiolo and Pinot Noir share a lot of the same characteristics as Nerello Mascalese. They're all light in colour and body, but big on tannins, aromatics and complex flavours.
• They are all ageable wines. Modern wines from Etna haven't even been around long enough to work out the true aging potential.
• Vineyards are grouped into communes (Contrada), each with their own distinct characteristics.

As prices rise even further for Barolo/Barbaresco and Burgundy, people will look elsewhere for something similar.

One other related prediction. Mt Etna will be promoted from DOC to DOCG status. You heard it first here at Auswine!

I agree with this, some of these wines I've had are fabulous a the style I like.
If I was 10 or 15 years younger and not at the end of my cellar building this is where I'd be going.
But then again I don't have to I can drink some your stuff Ozzie.

Cheers Con.

[Aaron]

As there is no definition of the term "natural wine" it is difficult to have a generalised opinion or discussion of them.
Many wine-makers claim their wine is "natural" yet add preservatives. This is especially true in Burgundy, where the so-called natural Domaines almost all add sulphur at one point or another in the wine-making process.
It is extraordinarily difficult to make true "natural" wines in marginal climate regions (read "cool climate") due to the increased incidence of disease/mildew etc. In addition, the exporting of true "natural" wines is incredibly problematic, something certainly not lost on the French wine makers.
It is extremely rare for me to like a true "natural" wine, I cannot recall one I have liked, but that is a personal preference and not a statement that true "natural" wines are poor.
Recent market research shows there is a sharp decline in the sales of natural wines in the US, but i haven't seen any figures for Australia.

Agreed Felix- I'm certainly not bagging all "natural" wines, but have come across many wines that I consider to have major faults that are being passed off as "natural" by the seller/server. If someone's priority is for something different, with taste being secondary, all well and good, but for those of us who also want something they find pleasant to drink, this area can be a minefield! Obviously there are many organic, or close to organic wines out there that are superb in all respects. I'll be interested to see if some of the more extreme styles- ultra cloudy, spritzy, reductive etc are still in vouge in 5 years time...

[TiggerK]

Never forget that what some see as a fault is often very enjoyable to others. Some faults are always bad of course, but many characters like spritz, cloudiness and subtle, pleasant expressions of Brett are very enjoyable to a lot of people.

It will indeed be very interesting to see if some of these natural funky cloudy petnatty styles are still popular in five years, but based on what I see the millennials and younger generation looking to drink today, I predict the future is bright for those winemakers wanting to experiment a little and produce unusual and creative expressions of wine.

[Polymer]

Spritzy is often intentional nowadays..where producers want trapped CO2 as they believe it provides freshness..You can always give it a shake as well to get rid of it/reduce it.

"Pleasant to drink" is completely subjective....I'd much rather have a light mousey, spritzy, stinky natural wine than a full on fruit bomb. There is of course a limit to how stinky and how mousey a wine can get before it is just too overboard for me but there really are lots of places (and other countries) that really like natural wine..a lot of it is because they don't want the extra junk that can go into a wine...and good natural wines tend to be quite expressive when young.

The downsides to natural wines is some winemakers can be incredibly inconsistent...and while they might taste great at bottling when a wine can't make it out a year, something just really got away from them. There are other natural wines that are just really bad...but there are so many really great ones..and so many you wouldn't even know are natural.

I agree with Felix that there is no real definition of a natural wine....although generally you'll find that they don't spray at all..so even in the Jura where mildew can be a problem, they will only spray with natural sprays...copper tends to be done as a last resort and only in severe conditions...

They try to use spray as little as they can...try to add as little SO2 as they can and if they can get away with not having to do either, they'll not do either and if they make a great wine out of it, that's win/win.

I'd never buy a wine because it was natural...I'd never not buy a great wine because it was not natural..But I do find that places that carry a smart selection of natural wines will generally have a smart selection of wines in general and they generally have a large number of producers that I'd want to buy..or try...

I don't think natural wines are going anywhere....I don't see any reason why the producers that are going natural and produce great wines would ever stop. We could see that there are fewer crap natural wines..that would be nice for sure...

[Ozzie W]

I hate the phrase "natural wine" because it means different things to different people. At the end of the day, it's really just a marketing term. Phrases such as "organically farmed” or “minimal intervention" are much more useful.

[winetastic]

Prediction: The trend toward more fine wines being made using "minimal intervention" (thanks Ozzie) will continue and the market for fine wine made to a formula will decline. Nothing will change sub $15.

Prediction: The Beechworth wine region will grow in prominence with the wine drinking public.

[Craig(NZ)]

My surprise is how quickly the $100+ wines from the world's number 2 Test Cricket playing nation have expanded and exploded. Top labels now seem to be following what some top shiraz did in Aussie 20 years ago with the +$20 every year carry on.

The game now is picking the ones that are yet to bolt and stock up on them

Prediction: NZ will have 40 wines over the $200 mark by 2021

[felixp21]

wow, I didn't know India made such good wines!!!!

[Craig(NZ)]

wow, I didn't know India made such good wines!!!!

India hasn't been number two since Australia could play cricket.

[Mike Hawkins]

One right, one wrong from 10-15 years ago...

Right... I said that Aussie winemakers would over react on Chardonnay and go from tons of blowsy, oaky wines to overly restrained styles ( the opposite of what happened with reds in the 80s). Sure, there are exceptions, but too many chardys are austere. One has to sift through those to find some undoubtedly great ones.

Wrong... overseas markets would come to understand that not all Aussie Shiraz is overblown. Sadly for some great producers, that reality has gone unnoticed in the US and beyond. Even comments on this board reflect that viewpoint.

[phillisc]

One right, one wrong from 10-15 years ago...

Right... I said that Aussie winemakers would over react on Chardonnay and go from tons of blowsy, oaky wines to overly restrained styles ( the opposite of what happened with reds in the 80s). Sure, there are exceptions, but too many chardys are austere. One has to sift through those to find some undoubtedly great ones.

Wrong... overseas markets would come to understand that not all Aussie Shiraz is overblown. Sadly for some great producers, that reality has gone unnoticed in the US and beyond. Even comments on this board reflect that viewpoint.

Mike, thought your prediction would be that Champagne never goes out of style...you would certainly be right on that one
cheers craig

[Wizz]

I predict it will only be 54 more posts until this thread is ruined.

[michel]

I predict it will only be 54 more posts until this thread is ruined.

I predict sooner

[JamieBahrain]

Australian wine exports to China are slashed in response to foreign policy commentary and an increase in foreign interference. The escalation in response to a new Federal government seen as a soft target by mainland policy makers who look to pushing the US east of the Guam/ Honolulu line .

Staged protests in China see Australia wine destroyed "prohibition" like. With drunken protesters celebrating with new Chilean/ Argentinian imports.

The Australian wine industry pushes for government subsidies for forays into new markets and the new government concedes.

[kaos]

I predict that summer temperatures in the Yarra Valley will average 40C and the only drinkable Australian table wines will be Tasmanian Fiano, and Zinfandel and Burgundian varieties grown on Bishop and Clerk Islets.... Internationally Finland and Iceland will become the dominant forces in the quality wine markets, largely thanks to the evergrowing expat French, German, and Italian communities, and enormous reservoirs of cheap plonk will originate from Canada. South American wines will retreat to Tiera del Fuego and from the US of A to Alaska.

[michel]

I predict that summer temperatures in the Yarra Valley will average 40C and the only drinkable Australian table wines will be Tasmanian Fiano, and Zinfandel and Burgundian varieties grown on Bishop and Clerk Islets.... Internationally Finland and Iceland will become the dominant forces in the quality wine markets, largely thanks to the evergrowing expat French, German, and Italian communities, and enormous reservoirs of cheap plonk will originate from Canada. South American wines will retreat to Tiera del Fuego and from the US of A to Alaska.

Love it Kaos!